1. päivä: Ilmastoneuvottelut alkoivat – lähtökuopissa kotisohvalla

Miksi ette salli avointa keskustelua ?

Todella säälittävää ja raukkamaista toimintaa !

Lopultakin faktaa ilmastokeskusteluun. Hyvä YLE, hyvä MOT!!

Käsittämätöntä että Yle kehtaa edes näyttää MOT:ia. Loistava Age of Stupid sen sijaan piilotettiin FST:lle, toivottavasti tulee pian Ykköseltä tai Kakkoselta!

Olet, Pasi , hurmoksellinen uskonnollinen änkyrä.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8547224522119252436#

Hyviä ohjelmia kaikki, kiitos Pasi muistutuksista, jopa MOT oli osin asiaa tällä kertaa!.Avoimmuus ja ilmasto ovat tärkeitä, joten kaikkia kannattaa katsoa ...

Em. tuntemattomille suosittelen "Age of Stupid", katsoin juuri Areenasta kun eilen en huomannut:

http://areena.yle.fi/video/602802

En siis kuulu MOTin ilmasto-ohjelmien faneihin, mutta nyt ohjelmassa oli kyllä mielestäni pointtinsa. Odotan mielenkiinnolla korjataanko CRUn "lätkämailaa" ihan virallisesti, näinhän tehdään jos vääristelyä löytyy, tutkinta on käynnissä.

Pari kohtaa jäi erityisesti mieleen MOTista, jospa vaikka Virtasen Matti ehtisi kommentoimaan:

1. Siperiassa käynnistettiin kaupungin liepeillä tehdas (jota CRUn ei huomioinut eli MOTin mukaan "vääristelyä ja salailua") ja lämpötilat ampaisivat heti jatkuvaan nousuun (ja ns. kaupunkilämpö vaikutti lämpotilaan), vastaavia tapauksia on MOTin mukaan useita.
Lämpötilat ovat nousseet jatkuvasti, onko tehtaalla lisätty jatkuvasti "pökköä pesään"? Onko tehtaitten sulkeminen (kommunismin romahdus, nykyinen talouskriisi) vastaavasti laskenut lämpötiloja?
Jos näin ei ole käynyt, tehdas ei ole vaikuttanut?

2. CRUn tutkijat tuskailivat ohjelmien monimutkaisuutta (nykypäivää joka alalla) eivätkä osanneet selittää "mihin energia katoaa". Siis lämpeneminen on pysähtynyt 2000-luvulla (lämpömittareiden mukaan) vaikka kasvihuonekaasut lisääntyvät ja satelliittimittausten perusteella tiedetään että lämpöä tulee enemmän kuin säteilee takaisin avaruuteen. Joku ei täsmää eikä CRU osaa sitä selittää - varmaan kiusallista tutkijoille.
Tästäkö on kyse?
Voimmeko toisaalta olla varmoja että jostain se "ylimääräinen" energia vielä löytyy?

Olisihan se kiva jos ei lämpenisi ja kaikki johtuisi "CRUn väärennyksistä". Vielä kun todettaisiin että jäätiköt eivät sulakkaan, merenpinta ei nousekkaan eivätkä kuivuudet, tulvat yms. ole lisääntyneet ilmastomuutoksen takia ja vielä löydettäisiin ne perustavaa laatua olevat virheet fysiikan kaavoista, niin kaikki olisi hyvin.
Tai sitten tulevaisuus on tyyliä "Age of Stupid".

Olen kyllä hieman huolestunut miten kevyellä tutkimusperustalla tutkimus ihmisen todellisesta vaikutuksesta ilmastonmuutokseen lepää. Se on varsin helposti kyseenalaistettavissa ja mitään todellista varmuutta ei asiasta ole. En myöskään kuulu MOTin faneihin, mutta erittäin vakuuttavan ohjelman olivat eilen tehneet.

Saastuttamisen hillitseminen on varmasti kaikista hyvä asia. Mutta samalla kun esimerkiksi sivistyksemme kivijalkoja, kirjastoja, suunnitellaan suljettavaksi parin kymmenen tuhannen euron takia ollaan Kööpenhaminassa tekemässä päätöksiä, jotka voivat maksaa jopa miljardeja meille ja lapsillemme täällä Suomessa.

Minua häiritsee myös keskustelussa ihmisen usko omaan mahtiinsa. Emme me hallitse planeettaa, vaan planeetta hallitsee meitä. On vähintäänkin epävarmaa, että pystymme vaikuttamaan ilmastoon, vaikka haluaisimme. Samalla täytyisi pystyä ajattelemaan tulevaisuutta myös toiminallisesta näkökulmasta. Jos nyt tehtävät toimenpiteet todella alkavat vaikuttaa vuonna 2050, niin ei tässä kovin hätiköityjä ratkaisuja kannata tehdä. On syytä harkita tarkkaan ja tehdä todella punnittuja ratkaisuja arvailun sijaan.

Hiilidioksidia on ilmakehässä pari prosentin sadasosaa. Sen todellinen merkitys on vähäinen kaikissa laskelmissa, joten aika hölmöläisen hommalta koko keskustelu väillä tuntuu. Mukana näyttää olevan kohtalaisen paljon enemmän tunnetta kuin järkeä ja asioiden osoittamista tieteellisesti.

Kaupunkilämpö on myös mielenkiintoinen ilmiö ja kertoo aika paljon siitä, että mittausdata on vasta joitain kymmeniä vuosia luotettava.

Kun vielä huomioidaan, että ilmasto maapallolla muuttuu aina ja koko ajan sekä tunnistetaan oma kykenemättömyytemme edes sidettävän arvion tekemiseen, niin kyllähän tässä olisi syytä ennen kaikkea ensin kehittää tutkimusmenetelmiä ja vasta sitten alkaa tehdä hätiköityjä päätöksiä.

Suomessa oli n. 10 000 vuotta sitten jääkausi ja n. 30 000 vuotta sitten viidakko. Niinkin lähellä kuin 1000-luvulla viikingit kasvattivat vehnää Grönlannissa. Asia, josta ei vielä kovankaan lämpenemisen jälkeen haaveilla, pitkään aikaan.

Saastuttamisen hillitsemiseksi paikallistasolla, on tietysti hienoa, että kaikkea saastuttamista koitetaan vähentään. Mutta ei sitä tälläiseen arvailun kaapuun kannata pukea. Kyllä jokainen asiaan edes vähän tutustuva ymmärtää, miksi on syytä olla todella skeptinen nykytutkimuksen tuloksiin ja tasoon.

Pasille hyvää matkaa, vaikka moni taitaa toivoa vain menolippua :)

Kyllästyttää vaan tuo skeptikkojen jankutus että joku tutkimus tai henkilö = CRU = IPCC = Tiede. Eli kun jossain on joku epäilys niin mihinkään tietoon ei voi muka luottaa.

"Age of stupid indeed"

AI että oli Suomessa viidakko 30 000 vuotta sitten. En ollut tiennytkään. Kiitos "tiedosta".

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Jyrille voin kertoa, että kyllästyttää ja oikeastaan pelottaa se miten paljon minun ja lapsieni rahoja aiotaan tuhlata luonnonsuojelun nimissä, ilman mitään varmaa tietoa, että sillä rahalla saavutetaan yhtään mitään.

Otan paljon mielummin riskin, että ihminen aiheuttaa jotain ilmastossa ja esimerkiksi investoisin ne rahat koulutukseen tai vaikka lähikirjastoverkkoon antamaan näille uskovaisille vähän edes sivistytä. Se muuten ilahduttaa (ilahduttaisi, jos ei täydy leikata) meitä koko 2000-luvun ensimmäisen vuosisadan ihan varmasti, kun taas arpominen samalla rahalla voi vaikuttaa tai voi olla vaikuttamatta.

Pahvipäälle taas lukemiseksi vaikkapa http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susiluola

Ei täällä ole aina tundraa ollut ennen jääkautta rakas pahvipää. Välillä toki Suomen kohdalla on ollut meren pohjaakin, kuten esimerkiksi viime jääkauden jälkeen. Norjan öljykin merenpohjassa sisältää merkittävältä osin kasviperäistä jätettä, joka on kasvanut osittain erittäin lämpimässä. Pahvipää voi hyvin uskoa, että ilmasto on ollut täällä aikoinaan myös merkittävästi lämpimämpää kuin nykyään ja viidakkoa on ollut näillä leveysasteilla esimerkiksi 100 000 vuoden aikajänteellä 100% varmuudella.

Sitä se ilmastonmuutos on, ilmasto muuttuu jatkuvasti. Ihminen ei sitä merkitsevästi hetkauta tai edes pysty hetkauttamaan. Ikävää vain että tämä haihatus tulee maksamaan. Ja tuleekin maksamaan todella paljon. Positiivisena puolena on toki, jos pienhiukkaset ja muu saastuttaminen vähenee. Se on varmasti mitattua tietoa.

Kannattaisi perustaa kaikki nopeat päätökset vain todella varmaan tietoon, joka pystytään tieteellisesti osoittamaan. Pidemmällä aikavälillä on tietysti hyvä kaikille, jos pyritään aina vähempään saastutukseen. Esimerkiksi fossiilisista polttoaineista Suomen kannattaa varmasti pyrkiä eroon pitkällä tähtäimellä. Tuulivoimalla ja myös ydinvoimalla, kaikin tavoin.

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