3.-4. päivä: Kööpenhaminassa tehdään historiaa - vihdoin matkalla

Oikein hyvää reissua, Pasi! Odotan innolla tunnelmiasi paikan päältä. Toivottavasti pystyt säilyttämään selväjärkisyytesi näiden blogiesi yhä villeimmiksi käyvissä jälkikeskusteluissa :).

Eilen 10.12.2009 tuli Teemalta ohjelma jossa esiteltiin näyttävästi lätkämailoja.

Tämän linkin takaa löytyy interaktiivinen kartta, josta on linkkejä tutkimuksiin, joissa arvioidaan keskiajan lämpötilaa nykypäivään verrattuna. Kannattaa tutustua.

http://www.co2science.org/data/timemap/mwpmap.html

Miten realistisena Pasi oikeasti pidät sitovaa ja järkevää ilmastosopimusta? Ihan aikuisten oikeasti.

Tässä tämän aamuinen laskelma Kiinan lupauksesta:

http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/ulkomaat.shtml/arkistot/ulkomaat/2009/12/1015...

Kuulostaahan tuo hiili-intensiteetin lasku ihan hienolle mutta ainakin tuon mukaan tuo on nettopäästöjen kannalta täysin tyhjä lupaus. Samalla lupaukseen jätetään takaportti huiman talouskasvun prioriteetille päästökehitykseen verrattuna ja tietenkin ollaan hihkumassa suuria tukiaisia länsimailta puhtaampaan tekniikkaan ym että edes tuo voidaan käytännössä tarjota.

Olet tainnut muutaman kerran puhua siitä että maailman nettopäästöt tulisi saada taittumaan laskuun 2015 mennessä. Onko tämä realistinen ajatus?

Nykyisellä kasvulla ja tuolla lupauksella Kiinan päästöt yksinään tuplautuu seuraavan 10-11 vuoden aikana. Samaan aikaan Intia lupasi noin puolet tuosta lupauksesta eli hiili-intensiteetin lasku 20-25%. Kiinan tämän hetkisten päästöjen tuplaus edellyttäisi muilta mailta noin 20% nettovähennyksiä 2020 mennessä että päästöt pysyisi edes samana. Nyt on jo ainakin Intia joka lupaa vielä vähemmän, monet kehittyvät eivät lupaa oikein mitään (kun ovat myös oikeasti köyhiä maita), Usan 0-3% on mitä on ja nyt mennään neuvotteluissa jo tukkanuottasilla kun kukaan ei lupaa oikeastaan mitään.

Täytyy kyllä nostaa hattua tuolle Kiinan "tarjoukselle". Hyvin on pohdittu. Kuulostaa hyvältä mutta ei sitten kuitenkaan tarjoa oikein mitään.

Tässä COP15-blogi, jossa käsitellään kokousasioita Suomeksi ja antaa hiukan käsitystä asiasta:
http://blogs.helsinki.fi/copenhagen/

Historiassa kauppamiehet ovat ennenkin kokoontuneet. Parhaat ovat olleet alussa "Italia",ranska,englanti ja ruotsi. Miten tällä kertaa , onko linja pohjoinen -etelä. Myyjän vai ostajan markkinat, Päästöt vai nielut???

Samaa mieltä Pasin kanssa, nyt ollaan taitekohdassa. Ilmasto-asioista kun tulee kehitystä ohjaava voima kävi Köpiksessä miten tahansa.
Saadaan ilmakehä tasapainoon järkevästi sopimalla ja päästöjä rajusti vähentämällä tai sitten sama hoituu luonnon voimin (tämä ei ole se parempi vaihtoehto).

Joo, toivon, että Kööpenhaminassa onnistutaan.

Onnistuminen on sitä, että saastuttamisen kasvattamiselle laitetaan hinta. Onnistumista olisi myös se, että päätetään ohjata oikeasti rahaa asian tutkimiseen ja pyritään saamaan edes jonkinlaista luotettavaa dataa aiheesta. Olisi erittäin hienoa, jos tälläkin palstalla käyty väittely loppuisi siihen, että ihmisen vaikutus pystyttäisiin edes jotenkin osoittamaan tai poissulkemaan. Tämä arvailu on pahasta.

Epäonnistuminen sitä, jos elintasoa aletaan laskea, koska sillä *voi* olla vaikutusta ilmastoon.

Uskon, että järki voittaa ja mitään radikaaleja päätöksiä ei arvota.

Epäonnistuminen kokouksessa tapahtuu silloin, jos politiikka ohjaa tiedettä, kuten nyt näyttää pääosin olevan.

Niin, kaikkein oleellisin kysymys on, suostuvatko ns kehittyneet kapitalistiset maat tunnustamaan, että länsimainen ja pohjoinen hyvinvointi on saavutettu tekemällä ekologista velkaa, so pilaamalla ilmakehä, meret (mm ylikalastus, Välimeren ja Itämeren tila, koralliriutat ym), pohjavedet monin paikoin, köyhdyttämällä viljelysmaita.... Jos tämä ekologinen velka - maksamattomat kulut- hyväksytään, vasta silloin voidaan odottaa jotain oleellisia tuloksia. Tällä hetkellä näyttää aika huonolta.

Tsemppiä Pasille raportointiin, sehän on parasta mitä voi tehdä.

Hiilidioksidi lämmittää ilmastoa. Muutokset eivät näy tänään tai 10 vuoden sisällä, mutta 100-200 vuoden päästä MOT-ohjelman ei tarvitse enää spekuloida asialla.

Mistä epäilijä tiedät, että ihminen vaikuttaa ja miten paljon?

Niinpä niin, et lopulta yhtään mistään ... tästä on skeptisimissä kysymys. Todisteet puuttuvat.

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Over the weekend, LVMH Moet Hennessy Replica Monogram Canvas, the world’s largest luxury goods conglomerate, announced that it would increase its share in family-owned leather giant Hermes 14.2%, to a total of 17.1% stock ownership.


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LVMH, which owns such famous labels as Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Givenchy and Fendi, claims that it will not seek control of Hermes or board representation, but news of the sharp increase in the conglomerate’s ownership of the brand has many wondering if that will remain true for long. Luxury isn’t just a lifestyle, it’s also big business, and Hermes has been among the most profitable properties on the high-end mass market through the recent economic downturn.


Part of the Hermes allure for many clients stems from the fact that the Hermes family still runs the company, even in this day of corporate fashion and massive conglomeration. LVMH doesn’t just buy up shares of luxury brands for fun, and although owning a chunk of Hermes stock is certainly a strong bet in today’s luxury market, one can’t help but wonder about LVMH’s larger goals. Although the company’s spokespeople claim that LVMH merely has its sights on being a longterm Hermes stockholder, luxury watchers would be advised to take that with a proverbial grain of salt.


If replica handbag purchased a controlling share in Hermes, would it change your feelings about or perception of either company?


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