Napajääbarometri ilmastoveikkaajille – Kuumien paikkojen toinen paluu

Ihmiset ovat valitettavan lyhytnäköisiä. Katsotaan paria viimevuotta, ja vähätellään jos sattumoisin kuluva vuosi olisikin aavistuksen aikaisempia kylmempi. Trendi on kuitenkin selvä. Selvää lienee sekin, ettei tuohon +2 asteen tavoitteeseen koskaan päästä. Tavoite on mielestäni jo nyt täysin epärealistinen.

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Mitä mieltä Pasi olet James Lovelockin ennustuksesta, että keskilämpötila nousee äkillisesti noin viisi astetta(celsiusta) kun ilmakehän Co2 pitoisuus on 400-500ppm. Käsittääkseni ilmakehän ekvivalentti co2 pitoisuus on tällä hetkellä 430-460 ppm välillä(metaani, No2, sf6,CFC).Tähän tietysti lisänä muut ns. palautekytkennät(jääpeitteen väheneminen, ikiroudan sulaminen jne.) Viittaan tässä Lovelockin The Vanishing Face of Gaia teokseen. Onko tämä kuinka vakavasti otettava teoria ja onko se mielestäsi mahdollista? Muistaakseni Lovelock oli vielä sitä mieltä, että tuhoisa ilmastonmuutos on jo vääjäämätön. Pelkästään 6,8 miljardin ihmisen hengittäminen mukaan lukien lemmikkieläimet, karja jne. aiheuttaisi jo huomattavat päästöt.

Leikkaustavoitteen ohella toinen kysymys on tietenkin, miten siihen päästään. Minusta 15-21% leikkaus 2020 on jo merkittävä askel jos se toteutuu. (US taisi luvata 14% ja paluuta vuoden 1990 tasolle - en tiedä mistä perustasosta lasketaan muiden lupaama 15-21% leikkaus). Mitä 20% päästöleikkaus sitten vaatisi, kun energiantuotantoa tuskin saadaan päästöttömäksi ilman massiivista ydinvoiman lisärakentamista? Talojen sisälämpötilojen laskua, valaistuksen vähentämistä, liikenteen rajoituksia, ... vai mitä? Kuulostaa upealta, jos nykyisillä päätöksentekorakenteilla ja totutulla kulutustasolla on realistista päästä 20% päästöjen leikkaukseen.

Mikko ja "ilmastonmuutoksesta kiinnostunut",

Yleensä päästövähennysten vertailuvuotena on 1990 (joka on myös lämpenemisennusteiden perusvuosi). Jenkit tosin ovat vaihtelevasti käyttäneet vertailuvuotena viime vuosia, esim. 2000 ja 2005, jolloin vähennykset kuulostavat isoilta, mutta eivät sitä olekaan. Jenkkien paluu vuoden 1990 tasolle on siis muiden rinnalla 0 prosentin päästövähennys.

Mainitun suuruusluokan leikkaukset eivät itse asiassa vaadi vielä mitään ihmekonsteja. Mieleen tulee esimerkiksi ympäristöjärjestöjen Suomelle tekemä esitys "Virtaa tulevaisuuteen" (WWF 2007), joka osoittaa millä konsteilla Suomen päästöjä leikattaisiin 2020 mennessä 30 prosenttia. Vastaavia laskelmia on toki tehty monilla eri tahoilla.

Lovelockista voisin kirjoitta lähipäivinä pidempäänkin, "The Vanishing Face of Gaia" on minullakin juuri menossa.

Pasi Toiviainen

Tervetuloa lomilta Pasi.

Kööpenhaminan päästövähennysprosenteista saamme kuulla varmasti kyllästymiseen asti seuraavat sata vuotta. Joku prosentti sovitaan, se on tiedeyhteisölle liian pieni, eivätkä kaikki sovitut vähennykset edes toteudu. Pohjoisen napameren (nyk. vielä jäämeri) metaanipurkausbarometri on sitten seurannassa seuraavalla neuvottelukierroksella (YLE 20.8.09: Metaanipurkauksia havaittu Huippuvuorilla).

Kasvihuonekaasujen määrä ilmakehässä kasvaa niin kauan kun neuvotellaan "päästövähennyksistä". Nimitys johtaa harhaan, oikeasti kyse on ihmisestä johtuvien kasvihuonekaasujen pitoisuuden nousuvauhdista ilmakehässä. Pitoisuudet ovat jo nyt kestämättömällä ennätystasolla, syy on ihmisen mutta jatko ei ole enää vain ihmisestä kiinni. Jäämeri sulaa näilläkin pitoisuuksilla ja metaanipurkaukset lisääntyvät. Jos pitoisuudet haluttaisiin pitää nykytasolla ihmisten olisi poistettava kasvihuonekaasuja ilmakehästä.

Päästöjä vähentämällä (nousuvauhtia hidastamalla) paha katastrofi vähän viivästyy ja samalla pitoisuudet ehtivät kasvaa pitempään.
Päästöjä lisäämällä ilmastokatastrofit tulevat nopeammin.
Olisiko kertarysäys mukavampi kuin hidas kituminen?

Pasin kirjoituksesta huokuu toive, että napajää sulaisi ja että El Nino sotkisi ilmastoa kunnolla jo tänä vuonna jotta ilmastoasiat otettaisiin vakavammin. Samaa toivon minäkin, mutta "päästövähennyksien" sijasta olisi neuvoteltava kasvihuonekaasupitoisuuksien laskemisesta (ei lisäämisestä). Ilmastosta ymmärtävien olisi syytä pitää tosiasioita esillä ja kertoa suoraan selkokielellä millaisia haasteita on edessä jos pahin halutaan välttää. Fossiilisten polttoa/kauppaa on helppo verottaa ja vaikka kieltää kokonaan, mutta miten estetään metaanipurkaukset huippuvuorilla? Mikä on oikeasti realistista ja mikä ei?

Lovelockin neuvoista parhaita lienee "nautitaan kun vielä voidaan." Hän taitaa olla samoilla linjoilla kanssani näiden päästövähennysprosenttien kanssa - niiden aika meni jo.
Oletko Pasi oikeasti sitä mieltä että 40% päästövähennykset vuoteen 2020 mennessä on hyvä tavoite?

Kovaa tekstiä Jyriltä. Voisiko joku ystävällisesti kumota tuon päästöjen vähentäminen onkin ilman saastumisen lisäämistä -teorian. Yöunet menee jos joku ei taas todista jääkauden olevan hetimiten tulossa tms.

Terve taas, Jyri! Hauska tavata taas vanha tuttu.

Arviosi Köpiksen neuvottelujen tuloksesta on hyvin tod.näk. oikea: "Joku prosentti sovitaan, se on tiedeyhteisölle liian pieni, eivätkä kaikki sovitut vähennykset edes toteudu". Kaiken lisäksi voi olla, että tuon lopullisen prosenttiluvun määrittelemiseen kuluu vielä vuosi pari lisäneuvotteluja Köpiksen jälkeen.

Olet Jyri, kumman ristiriitainen näkemyksissäsi. Yhtäältä olet varma, että nykyisetkään päästöleikkausvaatimukset eivät mene läpi. Toisaalta kuitenkin vaadit vielä tiukempia - totaalisia - leikkauksia. Olet ilmastonmuutoksen hälyttävän karmaisevan todellisuuden suhteen oikeassa, mutta luuletko oikeasti, että kovemmat tavoitteet menisivät läpi, jos pienemmätkään eivät mene?

Minä pidän 40 prosentin päästöleikkauksia länsimaille vuoteen 2020 mennessä hyvänä tavoitteena. Ne voisivat vaikka juuri ja juuri mennä neuvotteluissa läpi. Lisäksi ne saattaisivat nippa nappa olla toteutettavissakin ilman isompia yhteiskunnallisia myllerryksiä.

"Metaanipurkauksista" muuten seuraavassa jutussa...

Pasi Toiviainen

Rationaalisen ajattelun täytyy toimia joka säällä, mutta myös jokaisessa poliittisessa ilmapiirissä ja taloudellisessa tilanteessa. Tieteen pohjalta pitäisi pystyä tekemään rationaalisia päätöksiä.

Pasi, asetat omat päästövähennystavoitteesi siis ensisijaisesti poliittisen ilmapiirin pohjalta. Minä rakentaisin politiikan ensisijaisesti tieteen pohjalta, se kun uskoakseni edustaa rationaalista ajattelua paljon paremmin kuin politiikka. Jos jopa sinä tätä vastustat niin onhan tässä toivo jo vähissä. Päästöjä ei taatusti lopeteta jos joku (poliitikko) ei sitä ensin perustellusti vaadi.

40% päästövähennykset 2020 mennessä (siis 110- 60% voimalla lisää kasvihuonekaasuja ilmakehään vielä vuosikymmen entisten päälle) on ainakin minun näkemykseni (ja Lovelockin) mukaan tuhoisaa politiikkaa kaikilla mittareilla, sitä tuhoisampaa mitä enemmän aikaa kuluu.

Kun poliittiset realiteetit sotkevat pahasti rationaalista ajattelua niin tiedossa on paha katastrofi, historiaa ei tarvitse paljon tutkia kun tämän huomaa. Pidän siis Köpiksen päästöneuvotteluja yhtä tehokkaina kuin Camberlainin rauhanneuvotteluja 70 vuotta sitten, mikä tässä on ristiriitaista?

Kiitos jo etukäteen metaanipurkausjutusta, ei tarvitse itse selvitellä ...

Jyri, olen puheenvuoroissani ja kirjoituksissani kyllä tehnyt selväksi, että mitään turvamarginaaleja ei enää ole, ja että päästöt pitää saada globaalisti kokonaan loppumaan yksinkertaisesti niin nopeasti kuin mahdollista. Jos on yhtään realisti, se vie kyllä ihan minimissäänkin pari kolme vuosikymmentä - ikävä kyllä.

On myös otettava huomioon se tosiasia, että jos yritetään toteuttaa liian raju suunnanmuutos, se voi osua omaan nilkkaan; yhteiskuntarauha voi revetä ja seuraukset olla päinvastaiset kuin toivottiin.

James Lovelock puolestaan varoittaa vähentämästä päästöjä liian nopeasti siksi, ettei ilmakehä hetkessä menetä myös planeettaa viilentäviä aerosolihiukkasia. Hänestä liian nopeat päästöleikkaukset olisivat se viimeinen virhe.

Ympäristö-lehdessä (7/2007) muuten linjasin näin: "Meidän on Suomessa otettava tavoitteeksemme luoda kasvihuonekaasuton yhteiskunta mieluiten 30 vuodessa. Ratkaisevan käänteen on tapahduttava lähivuosina. Maapallo tarvitsee kriisiohjelman."

Olet varmasti oikeassa kuten myös Lovelock, päästöillä on myös viilentävä vaikutus ja on niilla poliittisilla realiteeteillakin aina oma painoarvonsa sanoi tiedeyhteisö mitä tahansa.
Olen varma että monelle on jäänyt kuva että muutaman kymmenen prosentin päästövähennyksillä ilmasto-ongelma on ratkaistu (ja ratkaistaan Köpiksessä jollain sopimuksella). Vähän viritellään autoja ja energiantuotantoa, muuta ei tarvita. Tätä tukee kirjoituksesi että Köpiksessä "määritetään planeetan kohtalo", kun Köpiksen sopimus on parhaimmillaankin vain vaatimaton alku.

Niinpä.

Miltäs tämä napajääbarometri nyt näyttää? 8.11.2009 meni alle edellisen, vuoden 2007 ennätyksen.

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