Päästöoikeuksia jäljellä 12 vuodeksi – kiire konkretisoituu
Päästöoikeuksia jäljellä 12 vuodeksi – kiire konkretisoituu
Uuden tutkimuksen mukaan EU-mailla on nykyisellä kasvihuonekaasujen päästötasolla jäljellä ”päästöoikeuksia” enää 12 vuoden ajaksi. Siitä eteenpäin päästöjen olisi siis oltava nolla. Yhdysvallat puolestaan hukkaavat päästökiintiönsä nykymenolla vain 6 vuodessa. Näihin hätkähdyttäviin lukuihin päädytään, kun lähtökohdaksi otetaan se, että jokaisella maapallon asukkaalla on oikeus samansuuruiseen hiilijalanjälkeen.
Tämä globaalia oikeudenmukaisuutta korostava ajatusmalli on selvästi yleistymässä ja, ottaen huomioon ajatuksen vallankumouksellisuuden, se on oikeastaan otettu vastaan yllättävän vähällä nikottelulla. Esimerkiksi Helsingin Sanomat arvioi pääkirjoituksessaan (24.9.), että kehitysmaiden kantaan, jonka mukaan teollisuusmaiden on vastattava – ainakin taloudellisesti – valtaosasta päästöleikkauksia, ”on hyvät perusteet”. Niin kuin onkin. Nykyinen elintasomme on saavutettu hiilidioksidia tupruttelemalla, ja nykyinen kriisi johtuu pääosin teollisuusmaiden päästöistä. Kaikilla ihmisillä on puolestaan oltava yhtäläinen oikeus korkeaan elintasoon.
Eri asia tietysti on myöntää tämä malli ikään kuin filosofiseksi lähtökohdaksi, kuin alkaa myös toteuttaa sitä. Teollisuusmaille tämän ajatuksen hyväksyminen tarkoittaisi melkoisia ilmastotalkoita. New Scientist -tiedelehti (19.9.) otsikoikin juttunsa saksalaistutkijoiden laskemista oikeudenmukaisista päästökiintiöistä ytimekkäästi: ”Oikeudenmukainen jalanjälki merkitsee hiilikonkurssia”. Kiire teollisuusmaissa tarvittavan muutoksen suhteen alkaa vähitellen konkretisoitua.
Edes Kiina ei enää selviä vastaavasta haasteesta helpolla: nykytahdilla sen oikeudenmukaiset päästöoikeudet loppuvat 24 vuodessa. Ja kuten tiedetään, nykyään Kiinan päästöt kasvavat kovaa vauhtia. Brasilialla oikeudet riittäisivät 46 vuoden ja Intialla jopa 88 vuoden tuprutteluun – eli kenties aina myytäväksi asti.
Taloustieteilijä Nicolas Stern: loppu talouskasvulle
Toisesta itävästä – ja kauan odotetusta – ajattelun vallankumouksesta kertoo puolestaan ekonomisti, London School of Economicsin professori Nicholas Sternin toteamus, jonka mukaan ilmastonmuutos pakottaa rikkaat valtiot luopumaan jatkuvan talouskasvun unelmastaan. Guardian-lehden haastattelussa (11.9.) Stern katsoo, että talouskasvu on mahdollista vielä noin 20 vuotta, mutta sen jälkeen kasvun ajat ovat ohi.
Tämä pätee siis siitä huolimatta, että jossain määrin onnistuttaisiin murtamaan bruttokansantuotteen kasvun ja hiilidioksidipäästöjen lisääntymisen välinen kytkös eli siirtymään vähähiilisempään talouteen, mikä kuitenkin on Sternin mielestä ykköstavoite.
Lisäksi Stern huomautti, että kun hän kuuluisassa Sternin raportissaan suositteli maiden käyttävän ilmastonmuutoksen vastaiseen kamppailuun 1 prosentin kansantuotteestaan, nyt summa on uuden tilanteen valossa korotettava 2 prosenttiin. Hän arvioi ilmastonmuutoksen etenevän monin tavoin nopeammin kuin vuona 2006 uskottiin.
Vielä kahden asteen tavoitteesta
Palatakseni tutkimukseen oikeudenmukaisista kansallisista päästöoikeuksista, täytyy vielä mainita, että sen pohjanahan on tietysti tavoite pysäyttää lämpeneminen enintään 2 asteeseen esiteolliseen aikaan verrattuna. Niinpä luvut ovat aika kovat; 12 vuotta armon aikaa eurooppalaisille ja 6 vuotta yhdysvaltalaisille. Tutkijoiden mukaan tämä antaisi noin runsaan 60 prosentin mahdollisuuden pysyä tavoitteessa.
Toisaalta, laskelmat perustuvat aiemmin tänä vuonna Nature-lehdessä julkaistuun tutkimukseen [linkki tiivistelmään tässä], joka käsittääkseni antaa mainitun todennäköisyyden silloin, jos koko maailman päästöt on vuonna 2050 saatu leikattua puoleen. Näin ollen laskelmat edustavat niin sanoakseni virallista konsensus-käsitystä, mutta kuten blogissani on tullut aiemmin esiin, näin ”pienellä” päästöleikkauksella riski tavoitteen ylittymiseen voi itse asiassa olla huomattavasti suurempikin.
Äskettäin englantilainen ilmastotutkija Mark New esimerkiksi vahvisti yhä voimistuvan käsityksen, että 2 asteen tavoitteessa voidaan pysyä vain mikäli onnistutaan kehittämään teknologia liian hiilidioksidin imemiseksi pois ilmakehästä [linkki tässä]. ”Uskon, että poliitikot tietävät tämän. Uskon, että on olemassa sanaton ymmärrys siitä, että neuvottelujen kohteena on, ei 2 C, vaan 3 C tai 5 C”, New muistutti Kööpenhaminan neuvottelujen tärkeydestä.
Pasi Toiviainen
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Pasi Toiviainen kirjoittaa Kuumat paikat -blogia
Tiedetoimittaja Pasi Toiviaisen Kuumat paikat -blogissa seurataan ilmastontutkimuksen edistymistä sekä pohditaan keinoja ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemiseksi.
Kirjoittaja Pasi Toiviainen on pitkän linjan tiede- ja ympäristötoimittaja, dokumentaristi ja tietokirjailija.
Kommentit
No nyt ollaan
No nyt ollaan ymmärtääkseni koko asian ytimessä.
Optimistien mukaan vihreä tekonologia voisi jopa olla talouskasvun moottori. Voitaisiin säilyttää vauraus, mutta tehdä se teknisesti entistä viisaammin.
Mitä mieltä Pasi olet, voiko talouskasvua ja ekologisuutta yhdistää? Vai vaatiiko ilmastonmuutoksen torjunta väistämättä merkittävää vöiden kiristämistä?
Olen oikeastaan aika
Olen oikeastaan aika samoilla linjoilla kuin Lord Stern. Ennen pitkää talouskasvun on loputtava. En usko, että ikinä, vaikka kuinka teknologiaa parannettaisiin, päästään niin totaalisaasteettomaan tuotantoon ja täysin suljettuun kiertoon, että loputon talouskasvu olisi mahdollinen.
Lisäksi, jos mietitään sitä, että kaikilla maailman ihmisillä pitäisi olla oikeus samanlaiseen elintasoon, en oikein jaksa uskoa, että maapallo kestää nykyistä länsimaista elintasoa universaalina ratkaisuna tai ideaalina. Toisin sanoen ekologinen kestävyys (eli pitkälti ilmastonmuutoksen hillintä) tosiaan vaatii osalta porukkaa vöiden kiristämistä.
Mutta todettakoon se, että sikäli lukeudun mainitsemiisi "optimisteihin", että uskon vihreän teknologian voivan ainakin vähän aikaa olla jopa talouskasvun moottori, mutta ei siis loputtomiin. Tämän jälkeen se olisi vain talouselämän moottori.
Mielenkiintoinen "laaja"
Mielenkiintoinen "laaja" näkökulma, mutta todella vain yksi "arviolaskelma" muiden joukossa. Tuntuu vaan, että vaikka yllä hahmotellaan globaaleja tavoitteita "kaikki asiat huomioiden viimeisimmän tiedon valossa" niin silti ilmastonmuutoksen koko merkitystä ei ymmärretä, koska niin monet muuttujat heikkenevät potensiin. Kaikki elämä maapallolla kun on erittäin ilmastoherkkää ja lisäksi sidoksissa kaikkeen muuhun - niin ekosysteemit kuin talousjärjestelmätkin.
Haarukoidaan vähän, vuosisadan lopussa:
Optimistisesti: Kööpenhaminassa ja sen jatkoneuvotteluissa päästään sopuun, kulut ovat 2 % bkt:sta ja lämpötilan nousu onnistutaan rajoittamaan kahteen asteeseen, Suomessa lämpenesi noin 4C.
Pessimistisesti: Lämpenee Met Officen viimeisen katastrofi-ennusteen mukaisesti 4C ja pohjoisnavalla 15C. Väestöä on hengissä miljardi ja kaikki yhteiskunnat ovat henkitoreissaan. Bkt romahti noin 70-90%, sukupuuttoluvut yms. ovat samaa luokkaa.
Mutta miten ilmastokriisin alkaminen vaikuttaa talouteen ja ihmisperäisiin päästöihin? Ilmasto siis tulee muuttumaan rajusti optimistisessakin arviossa joka tapauksessa. Jos jäämeri on sula vaikkapa vuonna 2020, seurauksena on paha paniikki myös taloudessa. Samaan aikaan öljyvarat ja monet muut raaka-aineet ovat loppumassa. Päälle "normaalit ongelmat" joita ilmastonmuutos varmuudella pahentaa/aiheuttaa, kuten sikainfluenssa yms. taudit, ydinvoimalaonnettomuus tai -sota, suuri metsäpalo tai -kuolema, ennennäkemättömät tulvat, kuivuudet ja myrskyt, laajat nälänhädät eri puolilla ja ....
- ihmisperäiset päästöt voivat romahtaa 80% "ihan itsestään" markkinatalouden ja evoluution "näkymättömän käden" ohjaamina. Siis vuoteen 2025 mennessä, ei 2050 tai 2100 mennessä.
Ihmisperäisen päästöt voivat siis pudota paljon nopeammin "luonnollista tietä" kuin neuvottelupöydässä sopimalla. Hienot filosofiat ja sopimukset "tasa-arvoisesta hiilijalanjäljestä" ja "oikeudesta elintasoon" unohtuvat henkiinjäämistaistelussa, silloin jäljellä on vain lyhyen tähtäimen hengissäpysymis-filosofia.
Tulevaisuudessa on vielä yksi iso iso uusi ongelma. Jollain lämpenemistasolla luonnon päästöt (metsäpalot, metaanin vapautuminen yms.) nousevat ihmisperäisiä päästöjä suuremmiksi, ne kasvavat voimakkaasi jo lähitulevaisuudessa. Moottorit voi sammuttaa, mutta miten sammutetaan metaania pulpuavat Siperian suot yms.?
Sattuipa silmään uusi
Sattuipa silmään uusi mielenkiintoinen tutkimustulos( by Aradhna Tripati). Co2 pitoisuus(387 ppm) viimeksi näin korkealla 15-20 miljoonaa vuotta sitten. Keskilämpötila tuolloin 5-10 F astetta korkeampi. Ja mikä on ihmisen aiheuttaman muutoksen nopeus!!!! Tietoisuus ilmastonmuutoksesta ja sen seurauksista näyttää päivä päivältä yhä vain "valoisemmalta"....
Tässä varsin tuoreessa
Tässä varsin tuoreessa paperissa "Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?"
(Löytyy tästä: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf)
Hansen ja kumppanit ovat määritelleet turvalliseksi CO2 raja-arvoksi 350 ppm, josta nyt siis ollaan jo yli.
Keinoja hiilidioksidin poistamiseksi ilmakehästä on kyllä olemassa, mutta nykyisessä poliittisessa ilmapiirissä niiden määrätietoinen käyttöön ottaminen tuntuu mahdottomalta.
Eräs keino on CCS - hiilidioksidin talteenotto ja varastointi.
CCS on varsinaisesti tarkoitettu käytettäväksi hiilivoimaloiden yhteydessä, mutta sitä voitaisiin käyttää myös biovoimaloissa, jolloin menetelmällä saataisiin hiilidioksidia pois ilmakehästä.
Tämän uutisen mukaan ympäristöjärjestöt kuitenkin vastustavat CCS-teknologian kehittämistä:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/luonto_ja_ymparisto/2009/10/eon_perui_hiilivoimala...
Kaiken vastustamisen politiikka pitää lopettaa jos tästä halutaan selvitä. Tai sitten jonkun pitää keksiä, millaisilla pakkokeinoilla päästöjä voidaan vähentää JA miten yhteiskuntarauha voidaan samalla säilyttää.
Oikeasti kulutuksen puolittaminen ei veisi länsimaiden elintasoa sietämättömästi alaspäin, jos ollenkaan. Nyt aika kuluu hehkulamppukiellosta valittamiseen, joten pitkä matka on vielä kuljettavana ennen asenneilmaston muuttumista ilmastonmuutokselle torjunnalle suotuisaksi.
"Hansen ja kumppanit" ovat
"Hansen ja kumppanit" ovat menettäneet uskonsa päästökauppaan, Kööpenhaminan kokoukseen ja Goren/Obaman ilmastopolitiikkaan. Kun Hanseniin on näillä palstoilla usein viitattu maailman johtavana ilmastotutkijana, niin olisi hyvä tietää miksi Köpikseen edelleenkin liitetään suuria odotuksia.
http://www.grist.org/article/2009-10-01-climate-bill-attacked-from-the-f...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/mar/18/nasa-climate-change-james-...
Kaj Luukolle Eiväthän
Kaj Luukolle
Eiväthän ympäristöjärjestöt CCS-tekniikkaa vastusta, vaan kivihiilen polttamista. Biomassan poltto ja hiilen varastointi onkin siten toinen juttu. Kuitenkin kannattaa muistaa se että metsien on annettava kasvaa riittävästi, jotta hiiltä saadaan sitoutettua pois ilmakehästä. Toki biomassa voi tarkoittaa jotain muutakin kuin puuta, esimerkiksi hamppua. Ymmärtääkseni hamppi sitoo ilmakehästä runsäästi hiiltä, se on myös nopeakasvuinen kasvi ja tuottaa syötäväksi kelpaavia siemeniä. Voisiko sen polttaminen(siis voimaloiden uuneissa, ei sätkinä) CCS-tekniikkaa käyttäen olla yksi keino ilmastonmuutosta torjuvassa kamppailussa?
Mitä tarkoitat kulutuksen puolittamisella? Jos päästöistä on päästävä kokonaan eroon ei riitä että energian kulutus puolittuisi, myös sen tuotantotapoja on muutettava. Aineellinen elintaso tulee varmasti laskemaan, toinen juttu on sitten se pitääkö aineellisia hyödykkeitä elintason tärkeimpänä mittarina.
Kyllä vastustavat:
Kyllä vastustavat: http://www.kein-co2-endlager.de/
Taikka en minä tiedä ketkä sitä vastustavat, ovatko ympäristöjärjestöt asialla vai jotkut muut.
Jotta CCS:stä olisi hyötyä hiilidioksidin poistamisessa, sitä pitäisi pumpata maan sisään samaa vauhtia kuin nyt pumpataan öljyä sieltä ylös. Haaste on valtava, mutta teknistä estettä ei sinänsä ole. Hiilidioksidin poistaminen savkaasusta onnistuu jo tämän päivän teknologialla.
Hyvä energiakasvi on sellainen, joka tuottaa suuren sadon ilman väkilannoitteita. Ruokohelpi on Suomen oloissa lähes sellainen. Viljelysmaan rajallisuuden takia peltobuomassa ei voi nousta kovin merkittävään asemaan energiantuotantossa. Osaatko arvioida, paljonko Helsinki tarvitsisi ruokohelpiviljelmiä, jotta fossiiliset polttoaineet voitaisiin korvata sillä kokonaan?
Puolittamisella tarkoitan yksinkertaisesti sitä, että energiankulutuksen puoolittaminen olisi todennäköisesti suhteellisen kivutonta, ilman sietämätöntä vaikutusta elinoloihin, eli siis toteutettavissa. Palkän energiatuotannon muuttaminen ei riitä, eikä se edes voi muuttua niin paljon, että nykyinen tuotanto voitaisiin hoitaa ilman fossiilisia. Se on realiteetti, joka pitäisi ymmärtää. Myös ydinvoiman välttämättömyys tulisi pikaisesti ymmärtää yhtenä osana keinovalikoimaa.
Kaj Luukko: Minun on vaikea
Kaj Luukko:
Minun on vaikea ottaa kantaa tuon sivuston väitteisiin, koska ymmärrän Saksan kieltä varsin heikosti. En myöskään siis osaa sanoa ketkä kyseisen sivun takana ovat. En kuitenkaan löytänyt viitteitä sivun kuulumisesta esimerkiksi Greenpeacen tai WWFn alaisuuteen.
Uskoisin, että CCSsän vastustus liittyy pelkoon sitä, että sen laajamittainen käyttö hidastaa hiilivoimasta luopumista. Toinen syy voisi olla massiiviset rakennelmat ja pitkät hiilidioksidin kuljetus etäisyydet. Esimerkiksi missä on Suomea lähin öljylähde? Taidammekin tarvita lisää Itämeren kaasuputkia. Toinen asia onkin sitten varastointi luoliin. Kuitenkin kuten itsekin sanoit, haaste on valtava. Olisiko ehkä järkevämpää kohdistaa CCSsän laajamittaiseen käyttöönottoon kuluvat voimavarat esimerkiksi uusiutuvien energiamuotojen osuuden lisäämiseen ja energiatehokkuuden parantamiseen? Kaikenlaiset pitkät putkistot kuulostavat myös varsin riskialttiilta järjestelmiltä.
Toki sitten CCS-energiaa voisi tuottaa alueilla, joissa
potentiaaliset hiilidioksidi varastot ovat lähellä, ja siirtää sitten esimerkiksi HDCV - linjoja pitkin sähkön muodossa kauemmas. Silloin kuitenkin kannattaisi ehkä samantien harita uusiutuvilla tuotetun sähkön siirtämistä kauempaa.
En missään vaiheessa ehdottanut peltobiomassaa ainoaksi tai ensisijaiseksi energianlähteeksi. Yleisestikään en usko että meillä on yhtä ratkaisua, vaan että ratkaisu on eri keinojen yhdistämisessä. En osaa arvioida kuinka paljon ruokohelpipeltoa tarvittaisin Helsingin fossiilisten korvaamiseen - uskoisin että liian paljon. ;aimitsim hampun energiakäytön nimenomaan CCSn yhteydessä, koska se C4 -kasvina sitoo tehokkaasti hiiltä. Ilmakehästä voisi siis poistaa hiiltä, jos hampun itseensä sitoma hiili onnistuttaisiin varastiomaan turvallisesti. Toinen syy oli se, että toisin kuin ruokohelpi, hamppu tuottaa syötäviä siemeniä.
En ole varma hampun lannoituksen tarpeesta, mutta ymmärtääkseni se on vaatimaton kasvi - täytyykin ottaa asiasta tarkemmin selvää.
En ole missään kohdassa väittänyt, että energiankulutus voisi jatkua nykyisellä tasolla. Sen on vähennyttävä huomattavasti. Samalla on kuitenkin myös muutettava energian tuotantotapoja. Nämä eivät sulje toisiaan pois, vaan tukevat toisiaan.
En nyt tiedä tuosta ydinvoimasta. Sen päästönvähennys potentiaali ei ole kuin 5- 10 %, ja silloinkin täytyisi rakentaat valtavasti uusia reaktoreita - ja niistäkin osan täytyisi olla esimerkiksi hyötöreaktoreita, jotka ovat huomattavasti vaarallisempia kuin nykyisen tyyppiset reaktorit. Ilmastonmuutos tulee myös väistämättä aiheuttamaan tulvia, hirmumyrskyjä ja mahdollisesti jopa tsunameja.Kaikenlaiset mullistukset ovat ydinvoimaloille, ydinjätteen ja ydinpolttoaineen käsittelylaitoksille valtava riski.
Grönlannin sulamisnopeus
Grönlannin sulamisnopeus askarruttaa mieltäni juuri nyt.
Pohjoinen pysyvä merijää menetetään muutamassa vuodessa tai vuosikymmenessä lähes varmasti (vrt. Ilmastohyppy kohta- juttu).
Grönlannin jäätikkö sulaa hiljalleen satojen ja tuhansien vuosien kuluessa kokonaan kun ilmasto pohjoisessa lämpenee 2-3 astetta, kuten Pasi aiemmin kirjoitti. Nyt ollaan jo ainakin lähellä näitä lukuja ja sulamisesta on selviä tutkimustuloksia.
Selvää lienee myös että lämpeneminen lisää metsäpaloja Kanadassa (jossa on jo mm. laajoja metsäkuolemia) ja Siperiassa (moni muistanee kevään savuisen ilman Helsingissä) jos sää sattuu olemaan kuivaa. Nokipilvet lentävät yleensä pohjoiseen.
Met officen viimeisen ääriarvion mukaan Grönlannin tienoilla lämpenisi keskimäärin 15 astetta vuosisadan loppuun mennessä, lämpeneminen on joka tapauksessa kuitenkin useita asteita.
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